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hello and welcome to this SSE Community

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discussion hour my name is Annalisa

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ventola I'm the editor of edge science

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and I will be your host for this event I

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have with me Patrick wedge who is a

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writer editor publisher and television

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producer he spent two days two decades

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writing about science for magazines from

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Omni to discover to the New York Times

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it was a staff writer Newsweek produced

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television documentaries for WGBH and

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wnet was the editor of ssc's edge

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science for more than 12 years and as

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the author or co-author of nine books he

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is currently the editor and publisher of

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anomalous books Patrick it's a pleasure

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to have you with us today I invite you

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to begin your presentation and I will

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clear the stage

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thank you when it Lisa welcome everyone

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those of you who already know about the

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discovery of small comets probably have

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doubts about it as it's quite a

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controversial subject

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those of you who are not familiar with

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it are quite frankly in for a big

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surprise

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today I will tell you how the small

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comets were discovered and I will show

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you as much of the evidence I as I can

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squeeze into my presentation

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I will not discuss the details of the

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controversy that would take all day

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you'll have to read the book for that

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part of the story

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but I will tell you how I became

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involved in the story

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I'd like to begin by giving you a little

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bit of background about The Man Behind

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was a space physicist at the University

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of Iowa

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as an undergraduate there he assisted

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James Van Allen in the calibration of

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the first U.S lunars probes Pioneer

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three and four

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at the time of the discovery he was

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regarded as one of the most respected

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space physicists in the world he was

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responsible for more scientific

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instruments aboard spacecraft than any

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other scientist hadn't been an

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investigator

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aboard 42 spacecraft

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his scientific accomplishments were many

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he discovered the Theta Aurora made the

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first measurements of the plasma ring

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around Jupiter and Saturn he was the

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first to measure solar wind plasma

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funneling directly into the Earth's

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polar atmosphere and he discovered the

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belt of ions around

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now in August of 1981 a spacecraft

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called Dynamics Explorer 1 was launched

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it's basically an earth absorbing

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platform there were many scientists have

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who had instruments aboard the

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spacecraft and Frank was responsible for

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three of his instruments one of which

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was the ultraviolet camera which was

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built and operated by his colleague John

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Craven

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the ultraviolet camera which was

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designed to study the Earth's Aurora

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which is Frank's interest

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shows the Earth's deglo which is

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produced by the interaction of sunlight

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with the atomic oxygen present in the

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earth's upper atmosphere

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the images that came back from a UV

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camera were normal except they were

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speckled with some very puzzling dark

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now normally

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scientists will just ignore things that

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don't directly pertain to what they're

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interested are but Fred didn't like like

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to know about everything that was going

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on in his images and these dark spots

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really annoyed him

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so what is a scientist supposed to do

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when you can't understand something well

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you assign the job to a graduate student

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in this case John sayworth

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so he looked into whether it was do

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these dark spots were due to faulty

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instrumentation radio transmission noise

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failing sensors paint Flex on the camera

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so Frank concluded after a few years of

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putting John sigworth to work on this

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that there was something between the

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satellite itself and the region in the

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upper atmosphere being observed

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something was absorbing the ultraviolet

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light in that region and creating a kind

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of dark atmospheric hole in the uniform

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glow of the Earth

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Frank and seaworth found more than 30

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000 such spots in images during some

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2000 hours of observing time

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whatever the black spots represented

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they showed the pro-grade motion that is

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characteristic of meteorite material

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but these dark spots were enormous

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measuring about 30 miles in diameter and

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an altitude of 200 to 600 miles above

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the Earth

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these could not be rocks

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so what could it be

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well water just happens to absorb at the

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wavelengths they were observing with

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their camera

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but no amount of evaporation from the

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surface of the Earth could produce such

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large clouds of water vapor at that

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altitude

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the water had to come from out there

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Frank's conclusion

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these dark spots are What Remain when

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small comets house-sized chunks of water

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snow are vaporized above the Earth's

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atmosphere every minute

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so we're talking about millions of small

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comets incoming each year

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that was a problem if Frank had said

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there was one comment ten comment maybe

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a hundred comments coming in a year I

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don't think the hoopla would have been

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what it is

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but obviously the criticism came down

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now what's interesting is that the black

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spots would appear and disappear in a

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sequence of frames

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the odd the black spots seem to be

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objects in motion

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Frank's concluded that the gradual

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appearance and disappearance of a single

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atmospheric hole is caused by a small

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comet in a sequence of images taken 42

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seconds apart as you can see here

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these images reflect the transient

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nature of the water vapor clouds or the

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remains of small comets as they plunged

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Frank's Discovery was announced in

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geophysical research letters in April of

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1986. this is the cover of the journal

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where it appeared

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and you see at the top

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the ring which is the uh ultraviolet

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image of the northern oral oval

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now Alex dexler was the editor of the

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journal at that time and he allowed

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Frank to have two papers in this issue

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one was the data paper the other was the

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interpretation

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no one had any problems with the data

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paper the data paper was what it was but

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the interpretation caused The Firestorm

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desler ended up publishing 11 critical

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comments they covered a very broad range

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of subjects from geology to planetary

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atmosphere and from lunar science to

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astronomy Frank replied to each one it

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now if one satellite we're seeing these

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dark spots maybe there were other

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satellites as well well there just

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happened to be a Swedish satellite in

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the air at that time and he was allowed

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to

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examine some of their images and sure

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enough he spotted the dark spots in

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one of the people who was interested in

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Frank's area was Thomas Donahue who was

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a respected atmospheric scientist in the

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University of Michigan

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he looked at Frank's Facebook papers and

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said if Frank is right these comments

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would have brought enough water over the

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now this really surprised Frank because

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he had always assumed that the oceans

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had always been here and so did

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everybody else based on a very famous

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paper by William Ruby who was Pub that

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was published in 1951.

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everyone cites Ruby's paper as saying

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that the water must have been here at

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the beginning

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but if you look at Ruby's paper he did

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not say that he actually said that the

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water must have arrived on the surface

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of the Earth over time

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I don't think he meant to the present

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day however

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now one geologist was interested in all

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this a geologist at the University of

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Oklahoma Dave Deming later published the

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paper in the journal paleo supporting

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the idea that the oceans must have

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formed through a gradual accretion of

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volatiles over time to the present day

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this is where I came into the paper

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the New York Times at that time

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published a an article about Frank's

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Theory and the possibility they were

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responsible for the formation of the

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oceans on the earth

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I saw this and being a science

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journalist at the time I pitched the

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idea to an editor and you at Oceans

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magazine

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the editor gave me the go-ahead and I

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contacted

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uh Liu Frank

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interview them at length and my article

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ended up being published in Publishers

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magazine so that was my first

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uh

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now one of the things that's that's

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puzzled atmospheric scientists for a

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long time are not to listen's class

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they're not there's not enough rewarded

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thought to evaporate from the Earth's

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surface and reach altitudes of 55 miles

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to form these clouds

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but if the small comets are bringing

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water in and depositing a little of it

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in the upper atmosphere as it gets

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injected into the atmosphere and the

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Mystery of these clouds has a very

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something else that's a puzzled

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scientist for a long time are transient

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lunar phenomena these momentary glows

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that appears on the earth on the moon's

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surface

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and here is an image from a series of

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frames taken by some Greek astronomers

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in 1985.

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these exposures taken eight seconds

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apart and the impact of a small comet on

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the moon would produce such a momentary

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now one of the people who was very

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interested in in Frank's Theory actually

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was very uh skeptical of it was someone

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named clayne Yates at the jet propulsion

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Laboratory

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at the time uh he was working on the

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Galileo project

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but the gallery layout project was

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delayed because of the Challenger

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disaster

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so he decided to see if he could search

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for the small comets using a telescope

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now they're not many telescopes that are

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usable for near-earth objects but one of

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them was a space watch telescope

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in Kick B

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and Arizona

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so he got together with Frank and they

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did they discussed exactly how the

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search should be run to find small

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now Yates managed to get the first

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Optical images the small comets the

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large streaks in the image of star

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Trails but a faint small Comet Trail

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appears as well it's the slanted line

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the faint slanted line and the outline

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box

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these small dark fast-moving objects

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have so far only appeared in images

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now these these small comets appeared in

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the number of plain Yates images from

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the search

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here in the top image you'll see that uh

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Frank has tried to identify everything

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in the image from Star Trails cosmic

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00:12:47,810 --> 00:12:44,160
rays counting statistics CCD effects but

285
00:12:50,030 --> 00:12:47,820
once again in the box you'll see the

286
00:12:51,970 --> 00:12:50,040
characteristic slanted line of a small

287
00:12:55,190 --> 00:12:51,980
comet

288
00:13:00,110 --> 00:12:55,200
these exposures were taken by astronomer

289
00:13:02,449 --> 00:13:00,120
Tom carrolls in April of 1988.

290
00:13:05,210 --> 00:13:02,459
now the same comments seen the top image

291
00:13:08,629 --> 00:13:05,220
is seen in the in the Box in the

292
00:13:09,889 --> 00:13:08,639
following image which began 36 seconds

293
00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:09,899
later

294
00:13:14,389 --> 00:13:12,240
taking consecutive frames of the same

295
00:13:17,210 --> 00:13:14,399
object is the standard of proof and

296
00:13:19,069 --> 00:13:17,220
astronomy normally but after seeing the

297
00:13:21,290 --> 00:13:19,079
critics this after seeing this the

298
00:13:23,870 --> 00:13:21,300
critics wanted three consecutive images

299
00:13:27,650 --> 00:13:23,880
of the same object to accept that the

300
00:13:27,660 --> 00:13:31,030
foreign

301
00:13:36,050 --> 00:13:33,530
who is a professor of astronomy at

302
00:13:39,829 --> 00:13:36,060
Boston University was curious about all

303
00:13:43,310 --> 00:13:39,839
this and in 1988 he sent up a sounding

304
00:13:46,970 --> 00:13:43,320
rocket from Wallops Island in Virginia

305
00:13:50,150 --> 00:13:46,980
the payload of the rocket released 584

306
00:13:53,030 --> 00:13:50,160
pounds of water water vapor ice carbon

307
00:13:54,610 --> 00:13:53,040
dioxide and debris 185 miles up into the

308
00:13:57,769 --> 00:13:54,620
atmosphere

309
00:14:00,050 --> 00:13:57,779
almost 4 000 miles above the Dynamics

310
00:14:03,170 --> 00:14:00,060
Explorer satellite had been reprogrammed

311
00:14:04,970 --> 00:14:03,180
to take a series of one minute images of

312
00:14:07,610 --> 00:14:04,980
the narrow region surrounding the

313
00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:07,620
release of the Rockets payload and

314
00:14:13,310 --> 00:14:10,560
indeed Dynamic is 4 managed to spot the

315
00:14:16,910 --> 00:14:13,320
event showing that Frank's proposal was

316
00:14:19,009 --> 00:14:16,920
at the very least quite plausible

317
00:14:20,690 --> 00:14:19,019
somebody else who was interested in this

318
00:14:23,629 --> 00:14:20,700
was a meteorologist at Penn State

319
00:14:25,670 --> 00:14:23,639
University John oliveiro

320
00:14:27,829 --> 00:14:25,680
he wondered is there really a large

321
00:14:30,590 --> 00:14:27,839
amount of water in the upper atmosphere

322
00:14:34,610 --> 00:14:30,600
after repeatedly observing short-term

323
00:14:37,009 --> 00:14:34,620
perturbations in my microwave Spectra he

324
00:14:39,829 --> 00:14:37,019
concluded that those that these

325
00:14:41,990 --> 00:14:39,839
temporary increases in water vapor

326
00:14:44,629 --> 00:14:42,000
concentrations in the other atmosphere

327
00:14:47,870 --> 00:14:44,639
must have come from extraterrestrial

328
00:14:53,650 --> 00:14:49,670
foreign

329
00:14:57,290 --> 00:14:53,660
so after Lou Franks saw my paper in

330
00:14:59,090 --> 00:14:57,300
Ocean's magazine he contacted me and he

331
00:15:00,769 --> 00:14:59,100
asked me if I would be interested in

332
00:15:02,269 --> 00:15:00,779
writing a book with him about his

333
00:15:04,430 --> 00:15:02,279
discovery

334
00:15:07,430 --> 00:15:04,440
uh I thought I was very surprised by

335
00:15:11,269 --> 00:15:07,440
this because my article starts out

336
00:15:13,250 --> 00:15:11,279
rather skeptically about his finding but

337
00:15:15,350 --> 00:15:13,260
apparently he liked it enough that he

338
00:15:17,810 --> 00:15:15,360
offered this

339
00:15:22,790 --> 00:15:17,820
to me to write a book and the book

340
00:15:24,530 --> 00:15:22,800
appeared in 1990 and it gathered some uh

341
00:15:25,610 --> 00:15:24,540
it didn't make a big splash it made a

342
00:15:30,769 --> 00:15:25,620
little splash

343
00:15:30,779 --> 00:15:36,650
that's not the end of the story however

344
00:15:42,350 --> 00:15:40,129
while Frank was uh getting the uh data

345
00:15:44,689 --> 00:15:42,360
down from the Dynamics Explorer

346
00:15:47,509 --> 00:15:44,699
satellite he was also working on other

347
00:15:51,050 --> 00:15:47,519
instruments for a forthcoming

348
00:15:53,689 --> 00:15:51,060
spacecraft called polar

349
00:15:55,910 --> 00:15:53,699
and he decided to tweak a few things to

350
00:15:58,550 --> 00:15:55,920
make sure to be able to learn excuse me

351
00:16:01,689 --> 00:15:58,560
to learn more about what these black

352
00:16:04,550 --> 00:16:01,699
spots were and the small comets

353
00:16:07,550 --> 00:16:04,560
while the Dynamics Explorer showed the

354
00:16:09,710 --> 00:16:07,560
atmospheric holes in singles pixels

355
00:16:12,530 --> 00:16:09,720
this led critics to dismiss the

356
00:16:15,350 --> 00:16:12,540
phenomena as instrumental artifact

357
00:16:20,210 --> 00:16:15,360
but on the Polar space graph you see

358
00:16:25,069 --> 00:16:22,129
this was taken by the visible image

359
00:16:27,170 --> 00:16:25,079
system on NASA's polar spacecraft in

360
00:16:29,449 --> 00:16:27,180
1996.

361
00:16:31,370 --> 00:16:29,459
these black spots are in the image are

362
00:16:34,370 --> 00:16:31,380
caused by water vapor clouds from small

363
00:16:36,829 --> 00:16:34,380
comets disintegrating anywhere from 600

364
00:16:39,470 --> 00:16:36,839
to 1200 miles above the Earth

365
00:16:41,990 --> 00:16:39,480
the water vapor clouds momentarily and

366
00:16:44,990 --> 00:16:42,000
locally absorb the Earth's day glow as

367
00:16:48,110 --> 00:16:45,000
viewed from The Polar spacecraft

368
00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:48,120
when these uh when the news broke about

369
00:16:53,090 --> 00:16:50,880
this finding uh people called it a

370
00:16:57,590 --> 00:16:53,100
Vindication of Frank's provocative

371
00:16:59,389 --> 00:16:57,600
Theory and in 1997 this made the front

372
00:17:05,390 --> 00:16:59,399
pages of the New York Times The

373
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,110
now

374
00:17:13,909 --> 00:17:10,730
Frank's images above polar managed to

375
00:17:16,549 --> 00:17:13,919
produce a lot of other images of that

376
00:17:18,890 --> 00:17:16,559
supported Frank's conclusion uh this

377
00:17:21,289 --> 00:17:18,900
image of the sun lit Earth

378
00:17:24,169 --> 00:17:21,299
seen in the far ultraviolet

379
00:17:26,750 --> 00:17:24,179
was taken by an image by camera Awards

380
00:17:28,850 --> 00:17:26,760
polar and the image has a malted

381
00:17:30,770 --> 00:17:28,860
appearance because of intensities in

382
00:17:33,049 --> 00:17:30,780
this spectral window or factors of a

383
00:17:35,090 --> 00:17:33,059
million dimmer than those for Visible

384
00:17:37,250 --> 00:17:35,100
wavelengths

385
00:17:39,110 --> 00:17:37,260
this is the a record of the final

386
00:17:42,470 --> 00:17:39,120
moments of the disintegration of a small

387
00:17:46,430 --> 00:17:44,330
now one thing that was very interesting

388
00:17:47,450 --> 00:17:46,440
about polar is that when Polar was first

389
00:17:49,490 --> 00:17:47,460
sent up

390
00:17:51,650 --> 00:17:49,500
there was a misalignment of the center

391
00:17:53,270 --> 00:17:51,660
of gravity and spin axis of the

392
00:17:56,830 --> 00:17:53,280
spacecraft

393
00:18:00,230 --> 00:17:56,840
this unintended swaying Motion in the

394
00:18:03,230 --> 00:18:00,240
spacecraft's platform which they were

395
00:18:05,690 --> 00:18:03,240
later able to compensate for cause

396
00:18:07,490 --> 00:18:05,700
things that seen in the line of sight of

397
00:18:10,370 --> 00:18:07,500
Poland to appear

398
00:18:12,590 --> 00:18:10,380
double or Cat's eyes

399
00:18:16,370 --> 00:18:12,600
here are two frames the one on the left

400
00:18:17,409 --> 00:18:16,380
is a star showing up doubled because of

401
00:18:21,049 --> 00:18:17,419
the problem

402
00:18:24,049 --> 00:18:21,059
and here is an atmospheric hold showing

403
00:18:28,370 --> 00:18:24,059
up doubled again because of this

404
00:18:31,610 --> 00:18:28,380
misalignment in the Imager

405
00:18:33,710 --> 00:18:31,620
so once again this lens created to the

406
00:18:39,770 --> 00:18:33,720
fact that this is a genuine

407
00:18:46,250 --> 00:18:44,270
more images the raw images on the right

408
00:18:49,130 --> 00:18:46,260
for small comets bursting at high

409
00:18:51,770 --> 00:18:49,140
altitudes Trails of bright glows from

410
00:18:53,810 --> 00:18:51,780
Atomic oxygen were observed by the polar

411
00:18:56,090 --> 00:18:53,820
spacecraft high resolution Earth camera

412
00:18:58,310 --> 00:18:56,100
for ultraviolet wavelengths

413
00:19:00,169 --> 00:18:58,320
these trails are distinguished from

414
00:19:02,990 --> 00:19:00,179
artifacts due to penetration of

415
00:19:05,570 --> 00:19:03,000
energetic charged particles into the

416
00:19:08,510 --> 00:19:05,580
camera sensors by a sequence of

417
00:19:11,270 --> 00:19:08,520
electronic shutter closings during the

418
00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:11,280
exposure period of the image

419
00:19:17,150 --> 00:19:14,400
thus a real oxygen Trail is identified

420
00:19:19,610 --> 00:19:17,160
by alternative alternate brightenings

421
00:19:22,130 --> 00:19:19,620
and dimmings along the trails you can

422
00:19:24,409 --> 00:19:22,140
see how it's cut up along the trail an

423
00:19:31,630 --> 00:19:24,419
energetic particle will not have the

424
00:19:38,390 --> 00:19:34,730
here is a long oxygen trail from the

425
00:19:42,110 --> 00:19:38,400
disruption of a small comet passing by

426
00:19:47,210 --> 00:19:44,630
now unlike the large comets which are

427
00:19:49,789 --> 00:19:47,220
detected by their comma commas small

428
00:19:50,870 --> 00:19:49,799
comets can only be detected by reflected

429
00:19:53,450 --> 00:19:50,880
sunlight

430
00:19:55,909 --> 00:19:53,460
and because they are so faint they need

431
00:19:59,150 --> 00:19:55,919
to pass much closer to the Earth than

432
00:20:02,750 --> 00:19:59,160
the large comics in order to be seen

433
00:20:04,789 --> 00:20:02,760
but if they do exist some astronomers

434
00:20:07,370 --> 00:20:04,799
have realized there would certainly be

435
00:20:10,190 --> 00:20:07,380
many of them as very likely they would

436
00:20:16,730 --> 00:20:10,200
be indistinguishable from the meteors we

437
00:20:21,890 --> 00:20:19,669
now here are subframes from two cameras

438
00:20:25,190 --> 00:20:21,900
aboard this polar spacecraft one is

439
00:20:28,010 --> 00:20:25,200
divisible and one is uvi

440
00:20:30,890 --> 00:20:28,020
that showed this day glow intensities at

441
00:20:35,510 --> 00:20:30,900
the same location in the earth's upper

442
00:20:37,669 --> 00:20:35,520
atmosphere both before during and after

443
00:20:39,830 --> 00:20:37,679
the occurrence of an atmospheric hole

444
00:20:42,409 --> 00:20:39,840
produced by the deposition of water

445
00:20:45,049 --> 00:20:42,419
vapor from a small comet

446
00:20:47,270 --> 00:20:45,059
Whatever Whenever a large atmospheric

447
00:20:50,029 --> 00:20:47,280
hole was detected in one camera's frame

448
00:20:51,470 --> 00:20:50,039
it was detected in the other camera's

449
00:20:54,230 --> 00:20:51,480
frame

450
00:20:56,630 --> 00:20:54,240
this series of observations provide a

451
00:21:00,770 --> 00:20:56,640
conclusive identification of atmospheric

452
00:21:05,510 --> 00:21:00,780
holes as a genuine geophysical phenomena

453
00:21:11,210 --> 00:21:08,090
here is a diagram basically of what

454
00:21:13,370 --> 00:21:11,220
happens you have an incoming small Comet

455
00:21:15,890 --> 00:21:13,380
about 40 feet in diameter containing

456
00:21:18,409 --> 00:21:15,900
about 100 tons of water vapor moving

457
00:21:20,810 --> 00:21:18,419
about 10 miles per second

458
00:21:22,370 --> 00:21:20,820
the comment breaks up about 800 miles

459
00:21:25,610 --> 00:21:22,380
above the Earth

460
00:21:27,590 --> 00:21:25,620
the comet vaporizes about 330 miles

461
00:21:29,930 --> 00:21:27,600
above the Earth

462
00:21:31,850 --> 00:21:29,940
producing a cloud of water vapor about

463
00:21:34,549 --> 00:21:31,860
30 miles in diameter

464
00:21:37,190 --> 00:21:34,559
and the dispersal as the the water vapor

465
00:21:40,070 --> 00:21:37,200
gets injected into the atmosphere it's

466
00:21:42,350 --> 00:21:40,080
it's dispersed by the upper atmospheric

467
00:21:45,590 --> 00:21:42,360
winds and finally the water vapor

468
00:21:47,630 --> 00:21:45,600
condenses into the Earth's oceans

469
00:21:50,090 --> 00:21:47,640
now the small comets are thought to be

470
00:21:51,610 --> 00:21:50,100
responsible for a tiny fraction of the

471
00:21:54,230 --> 00:21:51,620
annual rainfall

472
00:21:56,149 --> 00:21:54,240
depositing only about one ten

473
00:22:01,490 --> 00:21:56,159
thousandths of an inch of water on this

474
00:22:06,890 --> 00:22:04,610
's another image from polar's low

475
00:22:10,070 --> 00:22:06,900
resolution visible camera recording the

476
00:22:11,810 --> 00:22:10,080
emissions from the oh molecules when the

477
00:22:15,049 --> 00:22:11,820
small comets plunged toward the other

478
00:22:17,810 --> 00:22:15,059
upper atmosphere and disrupted by and

479
00:22:20,870 --> 00:22:17,820
vaporized by sunlight

480
00:22:23,630 --> 00:22:20,880
this is a multiple exposure three

481
00:22:25,909 --> 00:22:23,640
consecutive snap suction one image of

482
00:22:28,750 --> 00:22:25,919
the of you of the event taking six

483
00:22:33,950 --> 00:22:30,850
a view of the Earth has been

484
00:22:35,930 --> 00:22:33,960
superimposed on the images on the image

485
00:22:38,630 --> 00:22:35,940
as there are no detectable emissions

486
00:22:40,430 --> 00:22:38,640
from the Earth's nighttime atmosphere at

487
00:22:45,110 --> 00:22:40,440
the wavelengths where these oxygen

488
00:22:49,190 --> 00:22:47,690
and you probably can't see the charts on

489
00:22:50,930 --> 00:22:49,200
the left hand side but I'll describe

490
00:22:52,370 --> 00:22:50,940
what the it what they are

491
00:22:55,010 --> 00:22:52,380
the top

492
00:22:58,610 --> 00:22:55,020
are the result are the results from

493
00:23:01,610 --> 00:22:58,620
Polar from November 1997 through late

494
00:23:04,330 --> 00:23:01,620
January at 1998.

495
00:23:06,470 --> 00:23:04,340
this is the frequency of of of

496
00:23:08,750 --> 00:23:06,480
atmospheric holes

497
00:23:11,930 --> 00:23:08,760
the middle chart is from Dynamics

498
00:23:14,570 --> 00:23:11,940
Explorer which was taken 16 years later

499
00:23:17,210 --> 00:23:14,580
once again showing the same seasonal

500
00:23:18,950 --> 00:23:17,220
variation in November High the January

501
00:23:20,810 --> 00:23:18,960
low

502
00:23:23,510 --> 00:23:20,820
the bottom chart which is really

503
00:23:26,409 --> 00:23:23,520
interesting this was taken 42 years

504
00:23:30,649 --> 00:23:26,419
earlier and it shows the non-shower

505
00:23:32,950 --> 00:23:30,659
forward scatter meteor rates observed in

506
00:23:35,810 --> 00:23:32,960
Ottawa Canada

507
00:23:38,270 --> 00:23:35,820
it's no mystery why the atmospheric

508
00:23:39,950 --> 00:23:38,280
whole rate should correlate so well with

509
00:23:43,610 --> 00:23:39,960
the meteorite measured by forward

510
00:23:46,370 --> 00:23:43,620
scatter radar after all small comets are

511
00:23:48,649 --> 00:23:46,380
just a part of the neurotic Dusk and

512
00:23:50,810 --> 00:23:48,659
debris that orbits the Sun and falls

513
00:23:52,010 --> 00:23:50,820
into the Earth's atmosphere on a daily

514
00:23:55,610 --> 00:23:52,020
basis

515
00:23:58,250 --> 00:23:55,620
Fortis forward scatter radar is ideally

516
00:23:59,330 --> 00:23:58,260
suited to reflect the infall of small

517
00:24:02,270 --> 00:23:59,340
comets

518
00:24:04,370 --> 00:24:02,280
the the shaded areas are the shower

519
00:24:08,649 --> 00:24:04,380
times

520
00:24:15,770 --> 00:24:11,529
okay where did the story stand today

521
00:24:18,770 --> 00:24:15,780
well in April of 2003 it was French

522
00:24:20,090 --> 00:24:18,780
suffered a stroke that effectively ended

523
00:24:23,270 --> 00:24:20,100
his career

524
00:24:26,090 --> 00:24:23,280
he died in May of 2014.

525
00:24:29,029 --> 00:24:26,100
at that time I called Bob Hoffman who

526
00:24:32,450 --> 00:24:29,039
was the NASA project scientist on Polar

527
00:24:36,590 --> 00:24:32,460
and I asked them have the small pop have

528
00:24:40,190 --> 00:24:36,600
the small comments effectively been

529
00:24:43,370 --> 00:24:40,200
proven wrong and he said no no one has

530
00:24:45,649 --> 00:24:43,380
come up with an interpretation that

531
00:24:48,289 --> 00:24:45,659
would take into your account all of

532
00:24:51,770 --> 00:24:48,299
Frank's data

533
00:24:53,270 --> 00:24:51,780
Frank's partner in small Comet crime is

534
00:24:55,250 --> 00:24:53,280
John siegward

535
00:24:58,310 --> 00:24:55,260
he had gone on to become a senior

536
00:25:01,610 --> 00:24:58,320
scientist at Nasa Goddard he died in

537
00:25:04,990 --> 00:25:01,620
December of 2010 of an erotic aneurysm

538
00:25:08,330 --> 00:25:05,000
at his home at the age of 49.

539
00:25:10,909 --> 00:25:08,340
then in January of 2021 John Craven a

540
00:25:13,310 --> 00:25:10,919
research scientist who built the imager

541
00:25:15,409 --> 00:25:13,320
for dynamic Explorer and was the third

542
00:25:21,230 --> 00:25:15,419
author of the original small Comet

543
00:25:24,010 --> 00:25:21,240
papers he passed away in Alaska of ALS

544
00:25:26,930 --> 00:25:24,020
foreign

545
00:25:29,750 --> 00:25:26,940
Advocate the general consensus was that

546
00:25:33,830 --> 00:25:29,760
the Comets small comets were dead that

547
00:25:37,010 --> 00:25:33,840
they had been proven to be non-existent

548
00:25:40,070 --> 00:25:37,020
so then in March of 2021 I received an

549
00:25:42,649 --> 00:25:40,080
email from Bill Abbott

550
00:25:45,110 --> 00:25:42,659
he had read the biggest clash and urged

551
00:25:46,909 --> 00:25:45,120
me to get the book reprinted he said the

552
00:25:49,370 --> 00:25:46,919
small Comet Discovery should not be

553
00:25:51,590 --> 00:25:49,380
forgotten

554
00:25:54,049 --> 00:25:51,600
now he was unaware that in the early

555
00:25:56,930 --> 00:25:54,059
2000s Frank and I had written an

556
00:25:59,510 --> 00:25:56,940
additional 40 000 word follow-up about

557
00:26:01,669 --> 00:25:59,520
the polar results and the continuing

558
00:26:04,070 --> 00:26:01,679
controversy after the big splash had

559
00:26:06,470 --> 00:26:04,080
been published this material had never

560
00:26:08,750 --> 00:26:06,480
seen the light at day we had tried to

561
00:26:10,490 --> 00:26:08,760
convince the original publisher to issue

562
00:26:13,010 --> 00:26:10,500
a new

563
00:26:14,990 --> 00:26:13,020
edition of The Big Splash but they

564
00:26:17,570 --> 00:26:15,000
declined

565
00:26:20,390 --> 00:26:17,580
so basically that manuscript the 40 000

566
00:26:25,010 --> 00:26:20,400
word additional manuscript sat in a box

567
00:26:27,289 --> 00:26:25,020
in my garage along with the uh

568
00:26:29,930 --> 00:26:27,299
supporting materials

569
00:26:31,250 --> 00:26:29,940
so I thought that uh Bill Abbott was

570
00:26:33,470 --> 00:26:31,260
right

571
00:26:35,510 --> 00:26:33,480
the big his Discovery should not be

572
00:26:37,010 --> 00:26:35,520
forgotten so I obtained a reversion of

573
00:26:39,950 --> 00:26:37,020
Rights the Big Splash from the original

574
00:26:41,750 --> 00:26:39,960
publisher I contacted Lou Frank's

575
00:26:43,850 --> 00:26:41,760
daughters who are the beneficiaries of

576
00:26:45,710 --> 00:26:43,860
his estate and they allowed me to

577
00:26:47,149 --> 00:26:45,720
publish a book which is now called

578
00:26:49,610 --> 00:26:47,159
Cosmic Rain

579
00:26:51,169 --> 00:26:49,620
title that Frank originally wanted for

580
00:26:54,110 --> 00:26:51,179
the book

581
00:26:57,890 --> 00:26:54,120
I have become the de facto historian of

582
00:27:02,710 --> 00:27:00,590
I will end the presentation with the

583
00:27:06,230 --> 00:27:02,720
same idea that I ended my original

584
00:27:08,510 --> 00:27:06,240
Ocean's article the history of science

585
00:27:10,130 --> 00:27:08,520
is full of wild ideas some of the which

586
00:27:12,049 --> 00:27:10,140
turned out to be right

587
00:27:14,630 --> 00:27:12,059
the continents are moving and at one

588
00:27:16,909 --> 00:27:14,640
time formed a single landmass

589
00:27:18,950 --> 00:27:16,919
life arose from a few Elemental

590
00:27:20,029 --> 00:27:18,960
molecules in the earth's primordial

591
00:27:22,549 --> 00:27:20,039
abroad

592
00:27:24,529 --> 00:27:22,559
humans are descendants from the first

593
00:27:26,930 --> 00:27:24,539
primitive life forms

594
00:27:29,750 --> 00:27:26,940
in the light of those ideas correct

595
00:27:32,630 --> 00:27:29,760
small comets Discovery appears rather

596
00:27:38,570 --> 00:27:36,470
so that's my presentation you can obtain

597
00:27:42,649 --> 00:27:38,580
the book it's a large format for all

598
00:27:44,630 --> 00:27:42,659
color book from Amazon you can see more

599
00:27:48,350 --> 00:27:44,640
information about the book on my website

600
00:27:51,529 --> 00:27:48,360
at anonymousbooks.com you can see all of

601
00:27:53,810 --> 00:27:51,539
Frank's papers over 15 papers at the

602
00:27:56,289 --> 00:27:53,820
small comets website at the University

603
00:28:00,730 --> 00:27:56,299
of Iowa

604
00:28:03,529 --> 00:28:00,740
Universe at smallcommons dot physics Dot

605
00:28:05,890 --> 00:28:03,539
uiowa.edu and if you have any questions

606
00:28:09,590 --> 00:28:05,900
about the book after this presentation

607
00:28:13,490 --> 00:28:09,600
you can email me at cosmicrainbook at

608
00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:18,649
thank you everybody

609
00:28:22,370 --> 00:28:20,390
okay

610
00:28:25,070 --> 00:28:22,380
um wow that was incredible presentation

611
00:28:28,789 --> 00:28:25,080
Patrick I mean what a surprise

612
00:28:31,669 --> 00:28:28,799
um first I want to invite those uh of us

613
00:28:34,430 --> 00:28:31,679
in the audience here at um

614
00:28:38,510 --> 00:28:34,440
air meat to to please put your questions

615
00:28:40,190 --> 00:28:38,520
if you have them in the Q a section

616
00:28:42,409 --> 00:28:40,200
um also there is an option to raise your

617
00:28:45,049 --> 00:28:42,419
hand and to come on stage and ask your

618
00:28:46,549 --> 00:28:45,059
question directly of Patrick if you use

619
00:28:48,230 --> 00:28:46,559
that feature do keep in mind that the

620
00:28:49,909 --> 00:28:48,240
session is being recorded and live

621
00:28:51,950 --> 00:28:49,919
streamed

622
00:28:54,769 --> 00:28:51,960
um and so as we wait for the audience to

623
00:28:56,390 --> 00:28:54,779
formulate their questions I I'm still

624
00:29:00,049 --> 00:28:56,400
trying to formulate mine because this is

625
00:29:02,750 --> 00:29:00,059
a really kind of stunning

626
00:29:06,950 --> 00:29:02,760
uh thesis so

627
00:29:09,529 --> 00:29:06,960
what is the current current status of

628
00:29:13,190 --> 00:29:09,539
this Theory

629
00:29:15,769 --> 00:29:13,200
is it still completely ignored or it's

630
00:29:18,350 --> 00:29:15,779
basically you know once uh Frank and

631
00:29:22,130 --> 00:29:18,360
John's figworth passed away

632
00:29:24,950 --> 00:29:22,140
no one has actually followed up on this

633
00:29:27,169 --> 00:29:24,960
and it's basically been ignored and when

634
00:29:30,230 --> 00:29:27,179
I tried to get this book reviewed when I

635
00:29:32,690 --> 00:29:30,240
published it at the end of last year

636
00:29:35,330 --> 00:29:32,700
the the book review editor for a

637
00:29:37,850 --> 00:29:35,340
magazine said oh the small comments have

638
00:29:41,510 --> 00:29:37,860
been dismissed it's not true

639
00:29:44,149 --> 00:29:41,520
well they haven't that's the problem

640
00:29:45,830 --> 00:29:44,159
I mean you said in your talk that

641
00:29:48,289 --> 00:29:45,840
um Frank spent like a full year

642
00:29:51,590 --> 00:29:48,299
responding to criticisms

643
00:29:54,950 --> 00:29:51,600
of of his research would you I mean were

644
00:29:57,889 --> 00:29:54,960
his explanation successful

645
00:30:02,810 --> 00:30:00,649
it was Heavy put it this way it covered

646
00:30:06,529 --> 00:30:02,820
so many fields of science

647
00:30:09,470 --> 00:30:06,539
and it covered it in such detail

648
00:30:11,029 --> 00:30:09,480
that he had to familiarize himself with

649
00:30:15,110 --> 00:30:11,039
all sorts of things

650
00:30:17,450 --> 00:30:15,120
and he he

651
00:30:20,810 --> 00:30:17,460
actually thought he answered the critics

652
00:30:25,610 --> 00:30:21,909
yeah

653
00:30:28,370 --> 00:30:25,620
so I mean the implications of this is

654
00:30:34,730 --> 00:30:31,549
um so what this suggests is that perhaps

655
00:30:38,210 --> 00:30:34,740
water did not form itself on Earth but

656
00:30:41,389 --> 00:30:38,220
it has you know was deposited

657
00:30:43,850 --> 00:30:41,399
from elsewhere right well the original

658
00:30:46,070 --> 00:30:43,860
theory is that the the Earth was

659
00:30:50,210 --> 00:30:46,080
deposited on the Earth

660
00:30:53,029 --> 00:30:50,220
at the beginning through asteroids

661
00:30:54,950 --> 00:30:53,039
and basically all the Earth has always

662
00:30:56,930 --> 00:30:54,960
been here more or less

663
00:31:00,230 --> 00:30:56,940
and will always be here

664
00:31:02,029 --> 00:31:00,240
and Frank says Nope it was gradual

665
00:31:04,190 --> 00:31:02,039
accumulation and it continues to this

666
00:31:08,389 --> 00:31:04,200
day which of course

667
00:31:10,430 --> 00:31:08,399
has implications for climate

668
00:31:13,909 --> 00:31:10,440
okay uh one of the things that Frank

669
00:31:17,930 --> 00:31:13,919
tried to do is try to convince people

670
00:31:23,090 --> 00:31:17,940
who had uh uh created some climate

671
00:31:25,190 --> 00:31:23,100
models to inject this uh factor into

672
00:31:27,649 --> 00:31:25,200
their climate models to see how it would

673
00:31:30,529 --> 00:31:27,659
affect it and the person who had

674
00:31:34,490 --> 00:31:30,539
promised to do so kept promising kept

675
00:31:38,149 --> 00:31:34,500
promising and never did unfortunately

676
00:31:39,769 --> 00:31:38,159
yeah I mean first of all if the

677
00:31:41,510 --> 00:31:39,779
suggestion that this is enough comments

678
00:31:42,529 --> 00:31:41,520
to to fill our oceans that's a huge

679
00:31:44,330 --> 00:31:42,539
amount of water

680
00:31:46,909 --> 00:31:44,340
and then also the suggestion is that

681
00:31:49,730 --> 00:31:46,919
we're being bombarded by these small

682
00:31:52,010 --> 00:31:49,740
comments constantly and I think you said

683
00:31:54,230 --> 00:31:52,020
in your presentation like we're looking

684
00:31:56,690 --> 00:31:54,240
at a sea level change of about one tenth

685
00:31:59,570 --> 00:31:56,700
of an inch per year right 110

686
00:32:02,269 --> 00:31:59,580
thousandths of an inch per year yes okay

687
00:32:04,430 --> 00:32:02,279
um but still like if this excess water

688
00:32:06,769 --> 00:32:04,440
keeps accumulating

689
00:32:09,769 --> 00:32:06,779
um we're looking at possibly a much more

690
00:32:12,529 --> 00:32:09,779
watery planet in the very distant future

691
00:32:16,610 --> 00:32:12,539
well some of it evaporates into the into

692
00:32:18,230 --> 00:32:16,620
space some of it gets uh goes uh

693
00:32:21,350 --> 00:32:18,240
subducted into the ground

694
00:32:23,210 --> 00:32:21,360
there is water underground

695
00:32:24,889 --> 00:32:23,220
okay

696
00:32:25,630 --> 00:32:24,899
um do you

697
00:32:28,669 --> 00:32:25,640
um

698
00:32:31,490 --> 00:32:28,679
let me just say Frank ended his book by

699
00:32:33,669 --> 00:32:31,500
saying uh it will be a while before

700
00:32:35,389 --> 00:32:33,679
there's a beach in Iowa

701
00:32:38,810 --> 00:32:35,399
okay

702
00:32:40,190 --> 00:32:38,820
you got to that's what I was thinking so

703
00:32:42,289 --> 00:32:40,200
um we do have a couple of questions here

704
00:32:45,350 --> 00:32:42,299
I'm going to start with a question from

705
00:32:46,130 --> 00:32:45,360
the SEC president Margaret Moga

706
00:32:48,470 --> 00:32:46,140
um

707
00:32:50,570 --> 00:32:48,480
so she asked so most of the meteors and

708
00:32:51,789 --> 00:32:50,580
Fireballs are actually small comments

709
00:32:56,210 --> 00:32:51,799
question mark

710
00:32:58,789 --> 00:32:56,220
no no uh meteors and Fireballs are

711
00:33:01,850 --> 00:32:58,799
caused by Rocky objects

712
00:33:07,610 --> 00:33:01,860
small comments are very are like big

713
00:33:09,409 --> 00:33:07,620
fluffy snowballs with a thin uh uh

714
00:33:12,230 --> 00:33:09,419
carbon crust

715
00:33:14,630 --> 00:33:12,240
so these incoming

716
00:33:15,769 --> 00:33:14,640
small comets are not visible to the

717
00:33:21,769 --> 00:33:15,779
naked eye

718
00:33:27,769 --> 00:33:25,070
um this was in our chat

719
00:33:29,570 --> 00:33:27,779
um can you actually see that it says if

720
00:33:31,370 --> 00:33:29,580
small comments bring in water what are

721
00:33:33,889 --> 00:33:31,380
the implications for global warming and

722
00:33:35,330 --> 00:33:33,899
drying of large Parts in the planet if

723
00:33:37,490 --> 00:33:35,340
any implications

724
00:33:40,310 --> 00:33:37,500
well that's that's a good question not

725
00:33:42,889 --> 00:33:40,320
one I'm able to answer I'm not a

726
00:33:44,690 --> 00:33:42,899
specialist in this video I'm sure I I

727
00:33:46,190 --> 00:33:44,700
wish Frank was still alive to be able to

728
00:33:47,930 --> 00:33:46,200
answer these questions

729
00:33:50,269 --> 00:33:47,940
indeed

730
00:33:51,769 --> 00:33:50,279
um and then we have a question too from

731
00:33:53,990 --> 00:33:51,779
our

732
00:33:56,149 --> 00:33:54,000
support staff actually here at the soc

733
00:33:59,090 --> 00:33:56,159
he says congrats on your presentation

734
00:34:00,889 --> 00:33:59,100
with the advancement of astronomy and

735
00:34:02,930 --> 00:34:00,899
the launch of the web telescope can you

736
00:34:04,669 --> 00:34:02,940
envision any research follow-up that

737
00:34:06,889 --> 00:34:04,679
might emerge in the upcoming years to

738
00:34:10,609 --> 00:34:06,899
provide more data or some additional

739
00:34:12,409 --> 00:34:10,619
hypotheses or conclusions okay well uh

740
00:34:16,149 --> 00:34:12,419
one thing that's important to realize is

741
00:34:20,750 --> 00:34:16,159
that most telescopes are not geared

742
00:34:22,430 --> 00:34:20,760
to observing near-earth events there are

743
00:34:25,129 --> 00:34:22,440
actually very few telescopes that can do

744
00:34:27,349 --> 00:34:25,139
that most of them are focused way out in

745
00:34:29,930 --> 00:34:27,359
space now I don't think the web

746
00:34:31,970 --> 00:34:29,940
telescope is able to do that there was

747
00:34:34,550 --> 00:34:31,980
some discussion while Frank was alive of

748
00:34:38,050 --> 00:34:34,560
actually using the Hubble telescope but

749
00:34:42,770 --> 00:34:38,060
it would it would have required making

750
00:34:44,389 --> 00:34:42,780
uh changes to the the calibration and

751
00:34:46,849 --> 00:34:44,399
the focusing and everything else in the

752
00:34:48,290 --> 00:34:46,859
web tell us of the Hubble telescope and

753
00:34:50,450 --> 00:34:48,300
he did not want to be responsible for

754
00:34:54,829 --> 00:34:50,460
messing anything up

755
00:34:57,950 --> 00:34:54,839
so that said there are now other

756
00:35:01,130 --> 00:34:57,960
uh telescopes tracking near-earth

757
00:35:02,589 --> 00:35:01,140
objects and it's possible to use these

758
00:35:06,050 --> 00:35:02,599
other telescopes

759
00:35:08,630 --> 00:35:06,060
to have a dedicated small Comet search

760
00:35:12,349 --> 00:35:08,640
however it's

761
00:35:17,210 --> 00:35:12,359
it's it's it's uh it requires a very

762
00:35:19,670 --> 00:35:17,220
specific search to do so basically you

763
00:35:22,370 --> 00:35:19,680
need to use the telescopes as a in a

764
00:35:25,550 --> 00:35:22,380
skeet shooting mood mode so that you're

765
00:35:29,569 --> 00:35:25,560
actually tracking the small Comet as it

766
00:35:31,849 --> 00:35:29,579
moves you can't have just a a fixed spot

767
00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:31,859
something else that Frank wanted to do

768
00:35:38,810 --> 00:35:35,400
while he was alive he wanted to uh equip

769
00:35:40,069 --> 00:35:38,820
the shuttle uh astronauts with a special

770
00:35:41,930 --> 00:35:40,079
camera

771
00:35:45,410 --> 00:35:41,940
he thought that if they use the special

772
00:35:47,450 --> 00:35:45,420
camera they could actually see these

773
00:35:49,609 --> 00:35:47,460
small Comics coming in

774
00:35:51,310 --> 00:35:49,619
and he was going to he was working with

775
00:35:54,650 --> 00:35:51,320
someone

776
00:35:58,310 --> 00:35:54,660
who to provide the astronauts with this

777
00:35:59,990 --> 00:35:58,320
special camera but it never materialized

778
00:36:04,010 --> 00:36:00,000
because once again I think this the

779
00:36:09,109 --> 00:36:04,020
Challenger uh disaster changed the the

780
00:36:11,270 --> 00:36:09,119
uh the uh the sequence of of programs

781
00:36:13,069 --> 00:36:11,280
that were available for subsequent

782
00:36:16,069 --> 00:36:13,079
flights and it never made it on a

783
00:36:17,930 --> 00:36:16,079
subsequent shuttle flight

784
00:36:20,390 --> 00:36:17,940
questions

785
00:36:23,270 --> 00:36:20,400
I was um also thinking along the lines

786
00:36:25,370 --> 00:36:23,280
of the um current Galileo project where

787
00:36:27,770 --> 00:36:25,380
they're actually looking at the

788
00:36:30,410 --> 00:36:27,780
near-earth atmosphere for well

789
00:36:32,150 --> 00:36:30,420
extraterrestrial signatures

790
00:36:33,770 --> 00:36:32,160
um but I wonder if you know it would be

791
00:36:35,630 --> 00:36:33,780
possible for maybe there to be some

792
00:36:37,609 --> 00:36:35,640
accidental discovery of these small

793
00:36:39,950 --> 00:36:37,619
comets as they pay a little closer

794
00:36:42,890 --> 00:36:39,960
attention to their assassinosphere well

795
00:36:46,010 --> 00:36:42,900
I think the Galileo projects with the

796
00:36:48,650 --> 00:36:46,020
astronomer from at Harvard actually were

797
00:36:50,569 --> 00:36:48,660
interested in right uh he was more

798
00:36:53,569 --> 00:36:50,579
interested in objects inside the

799
00:36:55,210 --> 00:36:53,579
atmosphere okay rather than outside the

800
00:36:57,829 --> 00:36:55,220
atmosphere we're talking you know

801
00:37:00,050 --> 00:36:57,839
hundreds of miles to a thousand miles or

802
00:37:01,910 --> 00:37:00,060
so above the Earth

803
00:37:03,470 --> 00:37:01,920
we have a raised hand from one of our

804
00:37:13,930 --> 00:37:03,480
SSC members so I'm going to invite Mark

805
00:37:20,089 --> 00:37:17,690
hi uh thanks so much for taking taking

806
00:37:24,710 --> 00:37:20,099
my question and I wanted to thank you

807
00:37:29,109 --> 00:37:27,410
so I'm gonna admit first of all I'm not

808
00:37:31,430 --> 00:37:29,119
a scientist

809
00:37:34,130 --> 00:37:31,440
and I'm not a journalist and all those

810
00:37:36,349 --> 00:37:34,140
things but I'm more of a common I'm an

811
00:37:39,109 --> 00:37:36,359
I.T person but I I kind of represent the

812
00:37:41,210 --> 00:37:39,119
common person on the street so uh with

813
00:37:43,490 --> 00:37:41,220
that being said I apologize to my

814
00:37:47,150 --> 00:37:43,500
question seems Elementary but not a

815
00:37:50,870 --> 00:37:47,160
problem my my my basic understanding was

816
00:37:53,750 --> 00:37:50,880
that the Earth's water was seeded

817
00:37:56,210 --> 00:37:53,760
buy comments to begin with so this just

818
00:37:58,849 --> 00:37:56,220
to me it would seem as though this was

819
00:38:00,710 --> 00:37:58,859
just an advancing understanding of that

820
00:38:03,890 --> 00:38:00,720
almost like you're like instead of

821
00:38:06,470 --> 00:38:03,900
saying like when people said oh well

822
00:38:09,230 --> 00:38:06,480
Darwin thought Evolution was one big

823
00:38:11,870 --> 00:38:09,240
thing well we've now come to refine and

824
00:38:14,810 --> 00:38:11,880
Nuance that understanding this is merely

825
00:38:17,150 --> 00:38:14,820
a nuancing of the whole idea of there

826
00:38:19,609 --> 00:38:17,160
were comets way back when they seated it

827
00:38:22,010 --> 00:38:19,619
once and that was it no no no of course

828
00:38:24,829 --> 00:38:22,020
it doesn't work like that this is just

829
00:38:27,290 --> 00:38:24,839
merely a refining of that whole idea

830
00:38:29,390 --> 00:38:27,300
which it would seem silly people would

831
00:38:33,230 --> 00:38:29,400
fight against that considering science

832
00:38:36,050 --> 00:38:33,240
is always refining its understandings of

833
00:38:37,310 --> 00:38:36,060
things and so that's I'm if it's like

834
00:38:40,190 --> 00:38:37,320
well of course Mark you're not getting

835
00:38:41,750 --> 00:38:40,200
it because of X yeah common people

836
00:38:43,550 --> 00:38:41,760
probably won't get some of that so

837
00:38:45,410 --> 00:38:43,560
that's why I'm asking the question so I

838
00:38:46,910 --> 00:38:45,420
can refine my understanding when I try

839
00:38:49,130 --> 00:38:46,920
to explain this back to somebody else

840
00:38:51,050 --> 00:38:49,140
but that thank you and I'll take my

841
00:38:53,810 --> 00:38:51,060
question yeah well I think you're you're

842
00:38:55,310 --> 00:38:53,820
absolutely right it is a refinement the

843
00:38:57,530 --> 00:38:55,320
only problem is

844
00:38:59,930 --> 00:38:57,540
that it brings the refinement to the

845
00:39:02,329 --> 00:38:59,940
present day and people don't like the

846
00:39:05,329 --> 00:39:02,339
idea that the Earth is currently bomb

847
00:39:07,550 --> 00:39:05,339
being bombarded by small comets that's

848
00:39:09,890 --> 00:39:07,560
disturbing and they rather have it

849
00:39:11,450 --> 00:39:09,900
happen way in the past I'm fine we're

850
00:39:13,430 --> 00:39:11,460
fine with that

851
00:39:15,829 --> 00:39:13,440
the thing is we we tend to think that

852
00:39:18,950 --> 00:39:15,839
the Earth is isolated from from the rest

853
00:39:22,630 --> 00:39:18,960
of the universe it's not it's constantly

854
00:39:26,089 --> 00:39:22,640
being bombarded by rocks by dust by

855
00:39:28,310 --> 00:39:26,099
volatiles by small comets constantly

856
00:39:31,430 --> 00:39:28,320
coming into the Earth

857
00:39:33,470 --> 00:39:31,440
so it's really not that surprising and

858
00:39:37,910 --> 00:39:33,480
when I showed you those three graphs of

859
00:39:40,550 --> 00:39:37,920
of uh the frequency of of of these

860
00:39:43,130 --> 00:39:40,560
atmospheric holes as well as the forward

861
00:39:44,450 --> 00:39:43,140
scatter meteorate they were all about

862
00:39:46,730 --> 00:39:44,460
the same

863
00:39:49,430 --> 00:39:46,740
so it shows that this is all the

864
00:39:58,609 --> 00:39:49,440
incoming material it's just all sorts of

865
00:39:58,619 --> 00:40:00,710
um

866
00:40:00,720 --> 00:40:03,730
foreign

867
00:40:08,690 --> 00:40:06,310
looks like I

868
00:40:09,950 --> 00:40:08,700
lost my connection for a moment can you

869
00:40:13,550 --> 00:40:09,960
guys hear me okay

870
00:40:14,750 --> 00:40:13,560
I can okay good that was scary I

871
00:40:16,130 --> 00:40:14,760
hopefully won't have too much more of

872
00:40:17,870 --> 00:40:16,140
that we have a lot of questions here and

873
00:40:19,970 --> 00:40:17,880
I want to ask the audience to help me

874
00:40:21,770 --> 00:40:19,980
out by visiting the Q a and upvoting

875
00:40:24,530 --> 00:40:21,780
your favorite questions

876
00:40:26,990 --> 00:40:24,540
um so I uh I have another raised hand

877
00:40:28,970 --> 00:40:27,000
but I think I want to ask one of one of

878
00:40:29,750 --> 00:40:28,980
these questions

879
00:40:32,829 --> 00:40:29,760
um

880
00:40:36,770 --> 00:40:35,150
standby Carl we will get to your

881
00:40:37,490 --> 00:40:36,780
question

882
00:40:39,470 --> 00:40:37,500
um

883
00:40:42,109 --> 00:40:39,480
start with this question it says from

884
00:40:43,910 --> 00:40:42,119
herb Mertz uh with so many

885
00:40:45,349 --> 00:40:43,920
objects incoming wouldn't the

886
00:40:47,089 --> 00:40:45,359
International Space Station need to be

887
00:40:50,089 --> 00:40:47,099
watching for them and even if they were

888
00:40:51,950 --> 00:40:50,099
not a threat wouldn't they seem see them

889
00:40:54,290 --> 00:40:51,960
nearby

890
00:40:57,230 --> 00:40:54,300
okay first of all I think the space

891
00:40:59,450 --> 00:40:57,240
station is an altitude where it would

892
00:41:01,670 --> 00:40:59,460
not be a threat these Scott small

893
00:41:04,490 --> 00:41:01,680
comments would not be a threat

894
00:41:07,310 --> 00:41:04,500
now there's an interesting episode

895
00:41:09,530 --> 00:41:07,320
from a book about the mayor spacecraft

896
00:41:11,510 --> 00:41:09,540
the Russian mere spacecraft

897
00:41:13,790 --> 00:41:11,520
uh

898
00:41:16,310 --> 00:41:13,800
that at one point they just they they

899
00:41:19,430 --> 00:41:16,320
heard a couple of thumps and they saw

900
00:41:21,650 --> 00:41:19,440
all these like flakes all around their

901
00:41:23,990 --> 00:41:21,660
capsule and they were wondering what

902
00:41:26,270 --> 00:41:24,000
what just happened

903
00:41:29,690 --> 00:41:26,280
and Frank believes that this they could

904
00:41:31,849 --> 00:41:29,700
have been you know seen the the breakup

905
00:41:34,130 --> 00:41:31,859
of us of a small comments a

906
00:41:37,069 --> 00:41:34,140
disintegration of a small Comet around

907
00:41:38,890 --> 00:41:37,079
the spacecraft that turns into basically

908
00:41:47,810 --> 00:41:38,900
uh you know

909
00:41:53,450 --> 00:41:51,050
Roger Nelson asks is the one

910
00:41:56,030 --> 00:41:53,460
ten thousandth of an inch of a measure

911
00:41:58,310 --> 00:41:56,040
of the depth of a layer over the whole

912
00:41:59,870 --> 00:41:58,320
earth if it were so wouldn't we have all

913
00:42:02,630 --> 00:41:59,880
drowned long ago

914
00:42:03,650 --> 00:42:02,640
uh well no that's how that's basically

915
00:42:07,970 --> 00:42:03,660
how

916
00:42:12,470 --> 00:42:07,980
uh uh the Michigan atmospheric scientist

917
00:42:14,750 --> 00:42:12,480
calculated if you've got one one

918
00:42:15,829 --> 00:42:14,760
thousandths or one one thousandth of an

919
00:42:19,490 --> 00:42:15,839
inch

920
00:42:21,589 --> 00:42:19,500
a year over the age of the Earth he said

921
00:42:23,810 --> 00:42:21,599
well basically that's the amount of

922
00:42:27,470 --> 00:42:23,820
water we have in the earth's oceans

923
00:42:31,370 --> 00:42:29,089
I'm going to pass the mic now to Carl

924
00:42:33,050 --> 00:42:31,380
who is um I believe he is the

925
00:42:36,710 --> 00:42:33,060
representative of the associate members

926
00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:40,430
to him and see if he's

927
00:42:44,030 --> 00:42:42,589
good

928
00:42:46,730 --> 00:42:44,040
I'm here

929
00:42:48,170 --> 00:42:46,740
hello Carl hi Patrick let me see if I

930
00:42:50,450 --> 00:42:48,180
can turn my camera on I guess it's not

931
00:42:54,230 --> 00:42:50,460
important but oh there it is

932
00:42:56,870 --> 00:42:54,240
uh yeah um okay so just a quick question

933
00:42:59,210 --> 00:42:56,880
um I've I've read that there's always

934
00:43:01,849 --> 00:42:59,220
been talk about is or has there been

935
00:43:04,069 --> 00:43:01,859
water on Mars would that could that also

936
00:43:06,290 --> 00:43:04,079
have accounted for that as well

937
00:43:09,410 --> 00:43:06,300
okay what's interesting is that in the

938
00:43:11,030 --> 00:43:09,420
80s uh it was thought that the solar

939
00:43:13,490 --> 00:43:11,040
system there was very little water in

940
00:43:15,589 --> 00:43:13,500
the solar system people suspected well

941
00:43:17,210 --> 00:43:15,599
maybe there's water on Mars they

942
00:43:19,130 --> 00:43:17,220
couldn't quite figure out where it was

943
00:43:20,750 --> 00:43:19,140
but they thought there might be water on

944
00:43:24,410 --> 00:43:20,760
Mars somewhere

945
00:43:27,490 --> 00:43:24,420
but since then in the past

946
00:43:30,470 --> 00:43:27,500
you know 35 years

947
00:43:32,569 --> 00:43:30,480
one Discovery after another has come up

948
00:43:35,270 --> 00:43:32,579
oh there's water on the moon there's

949
00:43:38,329 --> 00:43:35,280
water on Mars there's this you know the

950
00:43:40,670 --> 00:43:38,339
moons of uh Saturn Jupiter have full of

951
00:43:42,890 --> 00:43:40,680
water I mean it's like

952
00:43:45,470 --> 00:43:42,900
through the solar system it's drenched

953
00:43:48,890 --> 00:43:45,480
in water at this point

954
00:43:50,390 --> 00:43:48,900
I mean if if you read the book all the

955
00:43:52,069 --> 00:43:50,400
some of these discoveries are mentioned

956
00:43:55,849 --> 00:43:52,079
in the book and there have been many

957
00:43:59,630 --> 00:43:55,859
discoveries since uh 2001 where

958
00:44:03,170 --> 00:43:59,640
basically the book ends but if if you

959
00:44:05,510 --> 00:44:03,180
look for water on various uh moons on

960
00:44:07,970 --> 00:44:05,520
various planets there's constant

961
00:44:10,370 --> 00:44:07,980
constant discoveries and it makes sense

962
00:44:12,589 --> 00:44:10,380
if the if the Earth is being bombarded

963
00:44:15,829 --> 00:44:12,599
by these small comets so is the rest of

964
00:44:18,230 --> 00:44:15,839
the solar system the question is how far

965
00:44:20,870 --> 00:44:18,240
in does it get how far in do they get

966
00:44:23,930 --> 00:44:20,880
before they're vaporized by the sun do

967
00:44:27,290 --> 00:44:23,940
they reach Mercury actually water has

968
00:44:29,210 --> 00:44:27,300
been discovered on Mercury volatiles

969
00:44:32,450 --> 00:44:29,220
so there's nothing unique about earth

970
00:44:35,510 --> 00:44:32,460
and water within this in in the theory

971
00:44:37,910 --> 00:44:35,520
no so it's Universal seems to be

972
00:44:38,890 --> 00:44:37,920
Universal we like to think we're unique

973
00:44:41,390 --> 00:44:38,900
yeah

974
00:44:51,290 --> 00:44:41,400
right okay

975
00:44:56,089 --> 00:44:53,750
thank you Carl for your question

976
00:44:58,609 --> 00:44:56,099
um we have one final

977
00:45:01,910 --> 00:44:58,619
question in the Q a I think it's a good

978
00:45:05,390 --> 00:45:03,710
um it says thank you Patrick for your

979
00:45:07,430 --> 00:45:05,400
presentation

980
00:45:09,650 --> 00:45:07,440
why do you think there was such Fierce

981
00:45:12,170 --> 00:45:09,660
resistance to this hypothesis especially

982
00:45:15,170 --> 00:45:12,180
since as you say in comparison to some

983
00:45:17,210 --> 00:45:15,180
others this one was relatively tame

984
00:45:19,370 --> 00:45:17,220
were certain implications too hard to

985
00:45:25,190 --> 00:45:21,589
well it's not so much the implications

986
00:45:28,069 --> 00:45:25,200
it's the very notion of being bombarded

987
00:45:31,370 --> 00:45:28,079
by a million maybe tens of millions of

988
00:45:34,309 --> 00:45:31,380
small comments every year I mean

989
00:45:36,770 --> 00:45:34,319
the astronomers responded to Frank at

990
00:45:39,050 --> 00:45:36,780
the beginning by saying hey if these

991
00:45:42,050 --> 00:45:39,060
things were real we would know about it

992
00:45:45,050 --> 00:45:42,060
first we would have known about it

993
00:45:49,370 --> 00:45:45,060
as a matter of fact I presented this

994
00:45:52,069 --> 00:45:49,380
small comic talk to the SSE

995
00:45:55,430 --> 00:45:52,079
in 1990 I believe

996
00:45:58,069 --> 00:45:55,440
when the uh when the SSC was held in

997
00:46:01,849 --> 00:45:58,079
Charlottesville Virginia

998
00:46:04,790 --> 00:46:01,859
and I started presenting basically the

999
00:46:07,250 --> 00:46:04,800
Dynamics Explorer results not the polar

1000
00:46:09,650 --> 00:46:07,260
which had not occurred at that time

1001
00:46:13,130 --> 00:46:09,660
and an astronomer in the audience

1002
00:46:16,309 --> 00:46:13,140
stood up and said

1003
00:46:19,910 --> 00:46:16,319
as I was presented presenting

1004
00:46:21,829 --> 00:46:19,920
of course the SSC being what it is the

1005
00:46:24,589 --> 00:46:21,839
audience said hey that's not the way we

1006
00:46:25,730 --> 00:46:24,599
treat our presenters

1007
00:46:29,210 --> 00:46:25,740
foreign

1008
00:46:35,150 --> 00:46:29,220
so basically uh it's just it's hard for

1009
00:46:38,390 --> 00:46:37,430
and that no one has discovered it before

1010
00:46:44,750 --> 00:46:38,400
now

1011
00:46:47,510 --> 00:46:44,760
such resistance to the idea

1012
00:46:49,910 --> 00:46:47,520
and I understand it Frank understood it

1013
00:46:51,410 --> 00:46:49,920
fully well also

1014
00:46:55,250 --> 00:46:51,420
but he said

1015
00:46:58,190 --> 00:46:55,260
listen I'm not going to ignore the data

1016
00:47:00,230 --> 00:46:58,200
the data tells me these things are

1017
00:47:02,270 --> 00:47:00,240
depositing water vapor into the

1018
00:47:04,370 --> 00:47:02,280
atmosphere and that's just the way it is

1019
00:47:09,109 --> 00:47:04,380
whether I believe it or not makes no

1020
00:47:13,130 --> 00:47:10,550
we'll put

1021
00:47:16,370 --> 00:47:13,140
well this is definitely an enlightening

1022
00:47:18,730 --> 00:47:16,380
conversation and um I I'm actually I'm

1023
00:47:21,410 --> 00:47:18,740
interested in your book now so

1024
00:47:23,690 --> 00:47:21,420
I might just take a look at it I

1025
00:47:24,349 --> 00:47:23,700
encourage everybody else to do the same

1026
00:47:26,150 --> 00:47:24,359
um

1027
00:47:27,230 --> 00:47:26,160
anyhow I think that's going to be it for

1028
00:47:29,390 --> 00:47:27,240
this hour

1029
00:47:32,390 --> 00:47:29,400
um we do following this we have a social

1030
00:47:34,430 --> 00:47:32,400
Lounge uh and I encourage people to

1031
00:47:38,030 --> 00:47:34,440
visit the social Lounge to just discuss

1032
00:47:39,890 --> 00:47:38,040
your insights from this conversation uh

1033
00:47:42,109 --> 00:47:39,900
and you know just to catch up with your

1034
00:47:44,630 --> 00:47:42,119
fellow SOC members so I hope you'll take

1035
00:47:47,150 --> 00:47:44,640
advantage of that opportunity uh and uh